The Houston Astros are set to face off against the San Diego Padres in the series finale of their interleague matchup, aiming to complete a sweep on Sunday Night Baseball. The Astros claimed victory in the first two games, winning 6-4 on Friday and edging out a 3-2 win on Saturday. The Padres, who currently lead the National League West with a 15-6 record, have struggled on the road this season, posting a 3-5 away record. In contrast, the Astros, fourth in the American League West with a 10-10 record, have been more successful at home, boasting a 6-5 record at their home field.
Scheduled to start at 7:10 p.m. ET at Daikin Park in Houston, the Astros are favored at -118 on the money line against the Padres, with an over/under of 7.5 runs for the game. Before making any predictions for the Padres vs. Astros matchup, it's recommended to check out the MLB projections from the trusted SportsLine Projection Model which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times.
The SportsLine Projection Model has been performing well in the 2025 MLB season, boasting an 8-3 record on MLB money-line betting picks c+340c. It has provided three top bets for the Padres vs. Astros game on Sunday. Despite the Padres' strong start and league-leading record, the model suggests the Astros have the edge, especially at their home turf. The Astros have emerged victorious in their last four meetings against the Padres at home and have excelled in limiting home runs this season.
The pitching duel is expected to feature Framber Valdez c1-2, 4.91 ERAc for the Astros and Dylan Cease c1-1, 6.64 ERAc for the Padres. Although Valdez has shown inconsistency in his recent starts, Cease, a 14-game winner last year, will look to find his form against the Astros.
The model forecasts a game with minimal scoring, predicting a combined total of 7.9 runs. Looking at potential run producers, the model gives two San Diego batters, including Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr., over a 43% chance for an RBI. On the Astros' side, five players, including Yordan Alvarez and Christian Walker, are expected to have a significant influence on run production.
In terms of hits allowed, the model anticipates 16 hits combined between both pitching staffs. Valdez and Cease will aim to control the game and limit the offensive output of the opposing team. The betting prop for hits is set at +105 on DraftKings for this game.
As you gear up for the Padres vs. Astros showdown, keep an eye on SportsLine's MLB expert, Matt Severance, for additional betting insights. With a strong track record, Severance offers valuable picks to enhance your betting experience.
So, as the stage is set for an exciting showdown between the Padres and Astros, make sure to stay tuned for the final game of this series that could deliver thrilling baseball action. © 2004-2025 CBS Interactive. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. CBS Sports and Commissioner.com are registered trademarks of CBS.
Please engage responsibly in sports betting and seek professional help if needed. Enjoy the game and may the best team emerge victorious at Daikin Park in Houston, TX.
