A significant tropical disturbance is poised to drench millions of residents across the Sunshine State this week, potentially leading to flooding concerns on Monday and Tuesday. FOX Weather Meteorologist Nick Kosir has highlighted that Florida is bracing for several days of persistent rain, with significant rainfall expected throughout the mid-week period.
The Southeast region is gearing up for an extended period of heavy rainfall and the possibility of tropical activity in the Gulf later in the week as the National Hurricane Center closely monitors a disturbance near Florida.
The origin of this weather disturbance lies in a weak non-tropical area of low pressure that is projected to track off the Southeast coast, traverse northern Florida, and eventually move into the Gulf by late next week, according to the FOX Forecast Center.
As this system lingers over the warm waters of the Gulf of America and the western Atlantic for multiple days, the National Hurricane Center emphasizes the need for monitoring it for potential tropical development. While the NHC has identified a broad area along the Gulf Coast from New Orleans to Florida and extending into the Atlantic off the Southeast Coast for surveillance, the probability of development within the next seven days remains low.
The NHC acknowledges that environmental conditions could marginally favor the gradual development of this system by the middle to late part of next week as it tracks westward across the Florida Peninsula and into the eastern and north-central Gulf region. Irrespective of potential tropical evolution, regions across the Florida Peninsula and the southeastern U.S. coast could experience heavy rainfall through the upcoming week.
Before any imminent tropical threats materialize, the slow-moving system is expected to unleash substantial rainfall across central and southern Florida, with the heaviest downpours anticipated for Monday. Total precipitation accumulations for the week may range from 3 to 5 inches or more south of the Interstate 4 corridor, with the possibility of thunderstorms dumping between 1 to 3 inches per hour, raising concerns about flash flooding from Sunday through midweek. The delineation of areas at heightened risk for storms and flooding will become clearer as the system progresses.
Looking ahead, the focus will shift to the potential tropical development of the system as it enters the warm waters of the eastern Gulf of America later in the week. While current forecast models do not indicate a substantial threat, several model runs suggest the likelihood of development in the Gulf, emphasizing the need for continued monitoring by the FOX Forecast Center.
Forecasters are closely monitoring various factors that will influence the system's trajectory, including the presence of wind shear as it moves into the Gulf and the duration the system spends over the warm waters gathering energy. At present, there is no concrete threat to respond to, but the evolving weather pattern merits vigilant observation.
Meanwhile, the persistent wet weather in Florida has led to some adverse incidents. St. Johns County Fire Rescue reported three individuals sustaining injuries when lightning struck the St. Augustine Beach Pier on Saturday afternoon. One person suffered critical injuries and was airlifted to a trauma center, another was hospitalized with non-life-threatening injuries, while a third person evaluated at the scene declined medical transportation. The pier was temporarily closed following the incident, with minor structural damage reported.
As the region remains on alert for potential tropical disturbances, the National Hurricane Center identified another system on July 12 that warrants monitoring. The possibility of tropical development in the Gulf is associated with a broad area of low pressure forming off the southeastern U.S. coast, with environmental conditions offering a marginal window for gradual development in the subsequent five to seven days, although the likelihood remains low at 20%.
In the event of tropical storm formation, the next name on the roster this season is Dexter. The system's potential trajectory could lead it to drift northward along the U.S. coast, with development in the Gulf region anticipated to veer westward towards the northern Gulf Coast, according to AccuWeather. Regardless of tropical evolution, the disturbance is expected to intensify rainfall over parts of Florida and the Southeast coast well into the upcoming week.
The ongoing hurricane season has seen some early activity, with storms like Chantal forming ahead of the typical schedule. Chantal's impact on the Southeast U.S. coast resulted in heavy rains and flooding in North Carolina, claiming lives and causing significant damage as tropical activity picked up before the traditional peak of the season in August.
As the weather narrative continues to unfold, meteorologists and authorities advise residents to stay informed and prepared for any evolving weather patterns that may impact their communities. With tropical disturbances looming in the Atlantic and the Gulf, vigilance and caution are paramount during this active hurricane season.