The Chinese military strategist Sun Tzu once said, “He will win who knows when to fight and when not to fight.” This ancient wisdom is now resonating within the ranks of Congressional Democrats as they weigh the possibility of a government shutdown to stand up to President Donald Trump. While the urge to resist Trump's agenda is strong among their base, Democrats face a strategic conundrum: is a shutdown the right battleground to choose at this moment?
On one hand, there are valid arguments for a shutdown. Trump has shown a willingness to circumvent Congress's appropriations and leverage the government for personal gain. New York Times columnist Ezra Klein recently highlighted the corruption and authoritarian tendencies of the Trump administration, making a compelling case for Democrats to take a stand. However, history tells us that using a government shutdown as a political weapon rarely ends well for the instigating party.
Previous attempts by both Republicans and Democrats to force concessions through shutdowns have often backfired, leaving the initiating party in a weaker position. Additionally, the public perception tends to shift against the party responsible for the shutdown, regardless of the underlying policy disputes. This dynamic presents a real risk for Democrats as they consider their next move.
The idea of making the shutdown about healthcare, a key issue for many voters, may seem like a winning strategy on paper. However, political scientist Matt Glassman warns that such a tactic is unlikely to shift the public opinion in Democrats' favor. Furthermore, using healthcare as a leverage point could inadvertently benefit Republicans by allowing them to address a pressing issue without shouldering the blame for potential disruptions.
Another strategic consideration for Democrats is the GOP's ability to exploit a shutdown scenario to their advantage. With control over the legislative agenda, Republicans could pass targeted funding bills to force Democrats into difficult positions, potentially weakening their stance and bolstering Trump's authority. Should a shutdown unfold, Democrats risk not only losing the policy battle but also strengthening their opponents' hand in the long run.
While the pressure to take a stand against Trump is undeniable, especially given the expectations of their supporters, Democrats must weigh the potential costs of a shutdown. As a minority party in Congress, they have limited tools at their disposal, and choosing the right battlefield is crucial. With the 2022 midterms looming as a more favorable arena to challenge Trump's agenda, Democrats may fare better by focusing on electoral victories rather than risking a shutdown that could backfire.
In the end, the decision whether to engage in a government shutdown is a complex one with significant implications for both parties. While the desire for a symbolic resistance is strong, Democrats must consider the broader strategic landscape and the potential unintended consequences of their actions. As the political drama unfolds, the true test of political acumen and foresight will lie in navigating this turbulent terrain with a clear-eyed view towards long-term goals and electoral success.